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Summary: The article explores the contribution of climate change to the spatial expansion of West Nile virus (WNV) in Europe. Using ecological niche models, the study demonstrates an increase in the area suitable for WNV circulation from 1901 to 2019, attributing it to climate change. The study also highlights the influence of population density changes on the risk of WNV, but recognizes climate change as a critical driver. The research focuses on evaluating the causal relationship between climate change and the spread of WNV in Europe. It aims to unravel the isolated effect of climate change by comparing factual simulations to a counterfactual scenario where long-term climate trends are removed. The study finds a notable increase in the area suitable for WNV circulation, with climate change being identified as a critical driver behind the heightened risk of the virus in Europe. The study acknowledges the role of population density changes but emphasizes the significance of climate change in the expansion of WNV. The outcomes of this research are relevant for public health as it sheds light on the impact of climate change on emerging mosquito-borne pathogens and informs strategies for managing and preventing their spread.
West Nile virus (WNV) is an emerging mosquito-borne pathogen in Europe where it represents a new public health threat. While climate change has been cited as a potential driver of its spatial expansion on the continent, a formal evaluation of this causal relationship is lacking. Here, we investigate the extent to which WNV spatial expansion in Europe can be attributed to climate change while accounting for other direct human influences such as land-use and human population changes. To this end, we trained ecological niche models to predict the risk of local WNV circulation leading to human cases to then unravel the isolated effect of climate change by comparing factual simulations to a counterfactual based on the same environmental changes but a counterfactual climate where long-term trends have been removed. Our findings demonstrate a notable increase in the area ecologically suitable for WNV circulation during the period 1901–2019, whereas this area remains largely unchanged in a no-climate-change counterfactual. We show that the drastic increase in the human population at risk of exposure is partly due to historical changes in population density, but that climate change has also been a critical driver behind the heightened risk of WNV circulation in Europe.
Anthropogenic climate change is having unprecedented impacts on ecosystem functions and services globally, with mounting evidence that climate-driven changes in the